Wednesday, May 25, 2022
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a major driver of global growth in the past twenty years, and the only large economy to avoid a pandemic-induced recession in 2020, the anticipated economic slowdown in China is a key risk to the global recovery in 2022. Other than this, the war in Ukraine, sanctions on Russia, export restrictions from major exporters of agricultural commodities, and a halt in shipping from Black Sea ports have constrained food supplies and driven prices to record highs. Moreover, sustained inflation will be the impetus for further monetary tightening this year, risking the economic recovery in emerging markets that will struggle to sustain fiscal support in the face of rising cost of debt from rate hikes.
On the back of this observation, attached is a Country Risk Indicator report from Dun & Bradstreet, which provides a comparative, cross-border assessment of the risk of doing business in a country. It analyses risk factors in different regions like North America, Western and Central Europe, The Nordics, Asia Pacific, Latin America & Caribbean, Eastern Europe and Central Asia etc. The report mentions that Asia Pacific’s outlook remains ‘deteriorating’. Regional growth projections for 2022 were revised down but remain relatively high. And inflation, while inching higher, remains under control. Unfolding of the debt crisis in Sri Lanka, the political crisis in Pakistan, and largescale lockdowns in China have cast a shadow on regional investment prospects.
Commentary from Dr Arun, Global Chief Economist, Dun & Bradstreet
“Global growth forecasts for 2022 are lower as the war in Ukraine fuels inflation to multi-year highs, disrupts global shipping and increases business uncertainty. Erosion of consumers’ spending power and higher uncertainty related to food and energy security elevate political and insecurity risks, particularly for import dependent economies.The balance of risks facing the Indian economy are tilted to the downside. External risks are weighing upon the pace of recovery of businesses in India when they were just recovering from the 3rd wave, impacting short term growth prospects of the country,” said Dr Arun Singh, Global Chief Economist, Dun & Bradstreet.
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